https://invest.ckpl.usNowości z internetowego kantoru Cinkciarz.plen-usforex conotoxia.compagcom_pagfoo-znaki_towarowe 2024pagcom_pagfoo-rNowości z internetowego kantoru Cinkciarz.plForex conotoxia.comnoCinkciarz.pl, Cinkciarz, analizy walutowe, komentarze walutowe, marcin lipka, kurs franka, kurs dolara, kurs eurohttps://invest.ckpl.us/img/logo/podcast_itunes.pnghttps://invest.ckpl.us/articles/rss/investment-research/commentshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test5https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test5test5<p>test5</p>forex conotoxia.comTue, 19 Mar 2024 11:59:00 +0100test5https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test3https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test3test3<p>test3</p>forex conotoxia.comTue, 19 Mar 2024 11:58:00 +0100test3https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test4https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test4test<p>test4</p>forex conotoxia.comTue, 19 Mar 2024 11:58:00 +0100testhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test1https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test1test1<p>test1</p>forex conotoxia.comTue, 19 Mar 2024 11:57:00 +0100test1https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test2https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/test2test2<p>test2</p>forex conotoxia.comTue, 19 Mar 2024 11:57:00 +0100test2https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/testbk1https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/research-articles/testbk1testbk<p>testbk</p>forex conotoxia.comTue, 08 Aug 2023 11:28:00 +0200testbkhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/testbkhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/testbktestbk<p>testbk</p>forex conotoxia.comTue, 08 Aug 2023 11:21:00 +0200testbkhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-september-2-8https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-september-2-8Central banks and politics are the main topics of the first week of September, which may affect in particular the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona and the British pound. It will also be an introduction to further key events this month - the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. <p>The GBP/USD pair exchange rate is still in a downward trend. The chances of potential brexit without agreement increased last week, as Queen Elizabeth II agreed with the motion of Prime Minister Boris Johnson to suspend the parliament. Meanwhile, MPs are returning to work this week after the summer break and will have only five meetings to stop hard brexit and the UK's exit from the European Union before October 31 without a deal. According to the decision, the parliament will not be able to resume its meeting until October 14, i.e. just over two weeks before the planned brexit.</p> <p>We can observe how serious the situation is and how it may affect the British pound after investors behavior in the currency options market. The cost of hedging against a decline in the value of the British currency over the next two months, i.e. after the official brexit, has increased for the 13th day in a row, which is the largest series of increases in history. Consequently, the expected GBP/USD volatility within this period reached its highest levels this year. Expected volatility of the pound also increased during the week and month, which may show that pairs with the British pound may fluctuate sharply within this period.</p> <p>On Wednesday, September 4, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates. The current interest rate in Canada is 1.75 percent and, looking at the market consensus, is to remain unchanged. Nevertheless, global pressure to ease monetary policy, trade war, the possibility of a slowdown in the US economy, all this can cause the Bank of Canada to speak in a dovish tone. It is also possible that it will open the way to possible interest rate cuts at the end of this year. If so, the Canadian dollar could be under more pressure.</p> <p>On Thursday, September 5, the Central Bank of Sweden will also decide on interest rates. The Swedish Krona seems a very weak currency. In relation to the US dollar it weakened to the levels recently observed in 2002. In turn, the EUR/SEK exchange rate climbed to the highest levels since 2009. This obviously helps to maintain inflation in Sweden due to the rising prices of goods imported into this country. Earlier, before the global risk aversion, there were talks about possible increases by Riksbank. Now, in turn, there are many indications that the central bank of Sweden may delay this move, and the Swedish krona may lose its argument for even a correction in a long-term trend.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd., a company from the group to which Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o. belongs</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p>forex conotoxia.comMon, 02 Sep 2019 10:41:00 +0200Central banks and politics are the main topics of the first week of September, which may affect in particular the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona and the British pound. It will also be an introduction to further key events this month - the decisions ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/aud-and-nzd-under-pressurehttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/aud-and-nzd-under-pressureThere is a terrible streak of currencies from Antipodes. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are falling for the sixth week in a row. The main reason for the depreciation of AUD and NZD seem to be concerns about trade tensions between the US and China, which translates into a potentially slower global economic growth and reduces demand for commodity currencies. <p>For Australia, China is the main trading partner. USD 85 billion worth products or 35 percent Australia&#39;s entire exports are sent to China. China also accounts for 24 percent of all Australian imports. These are products worth USD 47 billion. Meanwhile, for New Zealand, the percentage share of China is 24 percent in exports and 20 percent in import. The above trade dependencies clearly show that the condition of the Antipode countries is very dependent on the condition of the Chinese economy, which in turn becomes dependent on how the trade war will continue.</p> <p><img alt="NZD/USD weekly chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/30_08_2019_a-1.png" /></p> <p><small>NZD/USD weekly chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>The NZD/USD exchange rate, continuing the downward trend, has reached the lowest level since 2015. In addition, the lower limit in the main trend channel is going to be broken this week. The impetus and fast movement of prices may indicate a definite advantage for sellers. If the weekly candle closes below the line drawn through the bottom, it could be a clear confirmation of the strength of supply and the lows from 2015 may be at risk.</p> <p><img alt="AUD/USD daily chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/30_08_2019_b.png" /></p> <p><small>AUD/USD daily chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>On the other side, the AUD/USD exchange rate should once again start defending the low that was set at the beginning of the year during the &quot;flash crash&quot; phenomenon. It was a sudden collapse of prices, which could have been caused by low liquidity on the market together with the participation of algorithmic orders. However, AUD/USD has twice defended support at 0.6680. Thus, only defeating it could open the way to the levels we recently observed in 2009.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 30 Aug 2019 12:10:00 +0200There is a terrible streak of currencies from Antipodes. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are falling for the sixth week in a row. The main reason for the depreciation of AUD and NZD seem to be concerns about trade tensions between the US an...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-british-pound-is-still-in-a-downward-trendhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-british-pound-is-still-in-a-downward-trendYesterday`s fall in the GBP/USD exchange rate was one of the biggest in August. The last time the pound was falling so fast against the US dollar was in the first half of this month. The GBP/USD has fallen to its lowest level since August 22, remaining in the main downward channel. <p>The worse condition of the British currency seems to be again due to the increase in chances for Brexit without a deal. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would ask the Queen to suspend parliament so that MPs would not interrupt Britain from leaving the European Union. This raised nervousness in the British pound market and could lead to a decline in GBP. Another political risk could, on the other hand, increase the attractiveness of the US dollar, which was strengthening throughout the whole market.</p> <p>Finally, Queen Elizabeth II approved the prime minister&#39;s request and approved the suspension of the UK parliament almost five weeks before the scheduled brexit on October 31. Therefore, it is worth preparing again for possible higher volatility of the GBP/USD exchange rate, which is also indicated by the currency options market. Volatility for 3-month options on GBP/USD increased to the highest level since January 3.</p> <p><img alt="GBP/USD daily chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/29_08_2019_a.png" /></p> <p><small>GBP/USD daily chart. Conotoxia trading platform.</small></p> <p>The GBP/USD is still in a downward trend, as its upper limit has been defended in recent days. Thus, only the break of the line drawn through the tops could change the sentiment on this market. The closest support is set by the last low and by the lower limit in the downward channel.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd., a company from the group to which Cinkciarz.pl Sp. z o.o. belongs.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 29 Aug 2019 10:45:00 +0200Yesterday`s fall in the GBP/USD exchange rate was one of the biggest in August. The last time the pound was falling so fast against the US dollar was in the first half of this month. The GBP/USD has fallen to its lowest level since August 22, remaining ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-biggest-bull-market-in-silver-for-three-yearshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-biggest-bull-market-in-silver-for-three-yearsOnly from June to the end of August this year, the price of silver increased by nearly 30 percent, which seems to be one of the better investments in this period. For comparison, the price of gold at the same time increased by about 20 percent. Another thing is that the silver market is less liquid than gold, and therefore even less capital can cause significant price increases. <p>Investors&#39; interest in the gold and silver market is not diminishing due to the still tense situation between the United States and China. Precious metals seem to be the natural direction for capital that is looking for safer investments and a way to store the value of money in uncertain times. Bond yields are falling globally, which may further increase the attractiveness of gold and silver. Of course, these metals do not bear interest at all, but when bonds yields fall, they become more attractive.</p> <p><img alt="Price of silver" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/28_08_2019_a.png" /></p> <p><small>Price of silver. H4 chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>The chart shows such a strong trend that the price have even broken the upper limit in the upward channel. This can confirm the determination of demand and the growing scale of silver purchases. Broken upper limit in the trend channel may currently be the closest support for silver. Meanwhile, long-term resistance may be around the 2017 high at USD 18.50, which the price of silver seems to be approaching rapidly.</p> <p>Looking at the history of silver prices, we last saw such a strong increase at the beginning of 2016. Then silver went up in seven months by more than 50 percent. If this story were to repeat itself, then with a similar increase in prices the destination could be around USD 21.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 28 Aug 2019 11:29:00 +0200Only from June to the end of August this year, the price of silver increased by nearly 30 percent, which seems to be one of the better investments in this period. For comparison, the price of gold at the same time increased by about 20 percent. Another ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/eur-usd-the-end-of-downward-trend-soonhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/eur-usd-the-end-of-downward-trend-soonTrends on the currency market can last much longer than usually passed. Hence, often during the given trend we can observe comments about its change and reversal. It was no different with the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair, which has been going on since the beginning of February 2018.<p>A year and a half ago, the euro cost above $ 1.25. Currently, the rate is oscillating at 1,11, and therefore close to the lowest levels from spring 2017. From a fundamental analysis point of view, the situation in the euro area deteriorated much faster and much more than in the United States, which could have had a negative impact on the euro against the US dollar. The indicator of negative economic surprises for the euro area is currently much higher than for the US. This means that most of the published data from Europe is not only weak, it is still below market expectations.</p> <p>This situation may cause that the surveyed economists, whose opinions are used to create a market consensus, will start looking at subsequent macroeconomic data releases even more pessimistically. If that happened, even weak data from the real economy could still be better than market consensus. Because market expectations are the most important for investors, even a lack of visible improvement in macro data could change sentiment.</p> <p>What&#39;s more, institutional investors have started to reduce their involvement in short positions on the futures market since May. Net long positions illustrating the difference between long and short positions were reduced from May to August from -105,000 contracts up to -37,000.</p> <p><img alt="Non-commercial net long positions and EUR/USD" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/27_08_2019_a.png" /></p> <p><small>Non-commercial net long positions and EUR/USD. Source: tradingster.com</small></p> <p>The divergence between net positions and the exchange rate historically indicated the possibility of changing the long-term trend. Of course, history may or may not repeat itself, but it is worth paying attention to the current situation in this market.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comTue, 27 Aug 2019 13:34:00 +0200Trends on the currency market can last much longer than usually passed. Hence, often during the given trend we can observe comments about its change and reversal. It was no different with the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair, which has been going on s...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/global-market-sentiment-improved-after-trump-s-next-statementhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/global-market-sentiment-improved-after-trump-s-next-statementThe shock that Donald Trump served to investors on Friday evening translated into Monday trading and caused rapid market reactions. At present, however, the situation seems to be stabilizing with more information on US-China relations. <p>Futures contracts on US stock indices are climbing up. S&amp;P 500 gains 0.61 percent, Dow Jones 0.83 percent and Nasdaq 100 +0.84 percent. We also observe a significant return in the currencies considered as so-called safe haven. The US dollar has returned from a three-year low against the Japanese yen. The EUR/CHF exchange rate also increased, defending support at 1.0840. Futures contracts on US bonds have also retreated and the price of gold has fallen. There is no trace of earlier turbulence in the markets. Improvement in sentiment was caused by the statement by President Donald Trump that the US resumes trade talks with China.</p> <p>However, Chinese media emphasize that no phone calls took place. &quot;Based on what I know, the most important negotiators from China and the US have not had phone calls in recent days. Both sides maintain technical contact&quot; said Global Times editor-in-chief Hu Xijin. However, more attention is drawn to the words of Donald Trump.</p> <p>The optimism from the statement by the US president overshadowed even more terrible data from Germany, although they seemed to affect today&#39;s weakness of the euro. According to a publication from Monday, August 26, the Ifo business climate index in Germany fell to 94.3 points in August. The market consensus assumed publication at 95.1 points. As a result of the index decline, we saw the lowest reading since November 2012. The business expectations fell to 91.3 from 92.1 in July. In turn, the current condition indicator fell to 97.3 from 99.6 points in last month.</p> <p>There are many indications that the US president could remain the main playmaker on the financial markets, and sentiment can be spoiled or improved by one tweet. Hence, it is still worth paying attention to how the US stock indices, yen and franc behave, as volatility in these markets may still be increased.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 26 Aug 2019 15:14:00 +0200The shock that Donald Trump served to investors on Friday evening translated into Monday trading and caused rapid market reactions. At present, however, the situation seems to be stabilizing with more information on US-China relations. https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/donald-trump-shook-the-markets-againhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/donald-trump-shook-the-markets-againThe last week of August began with a considerable shock on many markets, both stocks and currencies or bonds. The main playmaker became again the President of the United States Donald Trump and his trade war with China. <p>On Friday, August 23 after 11 pm. Donald Trump announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese products. This happened after, also on Friday, China introduced retaliatory tariffs on USD 75 billion worth of US products. Trump said China should not have imposed new tariffs on US products. As a consequence, from October 1, Chinese goods worth USD 250 billion, which are currently taxed at a rate of 25 percent, will be taxed at a rate of 30 percent. In addition, other USD 300 billion worth of Chinese products that were taxed from September 1 at a rate of 10 percent will now be taxed by a 15 percent.</p> <p>Such information already after the close of trading on Friday hit the markets with great impetus at the beginning of the last week of August. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell below 105.00 yen per dollar at night, beating the low after a sudden collapse at the beginning of this year. As a result, we saw the lowest level in three years. The AUD/USD exchange rate fell to the lowest level in three weeks. The NZD/USD exchange rate fell by over 1 percent to the lowest level since September 2015. In turn, on the American bond market the 10-year yield was at the lowest level in August 2016, falling to around 1.47 percent.</p> <p>A respite for investors brought a statement that came from China. Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu told the media that China is willing to solve the problem through a peaceful dialogue. He added that China strongly opposes technological restrictions and protectionism in trade. This morning also Donald Trump announced that China wants to resume trade talks. This calmed the moods in the markets, and the rapidly falling prices at night began to turn back.</p> <p>Volatility in the morning was above average and it seems that we may still expect scuffles between the US and China, as well as pressure on the Fed from Trump, who rhetorically asked who is the bigger enemy, or Jerome Powell, who does not want to cut interest rates heavily and quickly or president of China.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 26 Aug 2019 10:14:00 +0200The last week of August began with a considerable shock on many markets, both stocks and currencies or bonds. The main playmaker became again the President of the United States Donald Trump and his trade war with China. https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-august-26-30https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-august-26-30Market sentiment can be created in the last week of August by what we hear at the symposium in Jackson Hole – especially it can be important for trading on early Monday. In addition to the reaction to the Fed chairman`s statements, political events in Europe and macroeconomic data seem to be of key importance.<p>One of the main policy topics will again be brexit and an attempt to estimate the chances of an ordered brexit or brexit without a deal, which may affect the British pound. Currently, the probability of hard brexit is about 40 percent and hasn&#39;t changed much lately. In turn, the British pound strengthened, and the GBP/USD rebounded from the round level of 1.2000 and quickly reached 1.2200. Strengthening the pound may owe the statements of Angela Merkel and the President of France, which met British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The German Chancellor suggested that it is time to reach an agreement by the end of October, and Emmanuel Macron gave Johnson little hope of compromise. With the return of British politicians after a summer break, a process may begin in which they will try to avoid hard Brexit.</p> <p>Meanwhile, in Italy, where there is a political crisis that may have a negative impact on the euro, a key stage of government formation will take place. Central-left Italian Democrats have until Tuesday to form a coalition with their long-time rivals, the Five Star Movement, after President Sergio Mattarella gave political parties more time to assemble a new parliamentary majority. What&#39;s more, the Matteo Salvini League is also prone to coalition with the Movement. The last week of August may be the key to forming a government. Otherwise, we may face elections in late October or early November.</p> <p>As regards macroeconomic data, it is worth paying attention to the publication of inflation from the euro area on Friday, 30 August at 11:00. If the preliminary reading for July at 1 percent will be confirmed, this may be reflected in the September decision of the European Central Bank. Investors are waiting for a large stimulus package for the European economy. Investors also have to remember about the trade war, because on Friday, August 23, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on the United States&rsquo; products worth USD 75 billion. The last week of August may therefore bring even greater escalation of the conflict, and this could spoil investor sentiment. It is worth paying attention to stock indices, yen and Swiss franc.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 23 Aug 2019 15:20:00 +0200Market sentiment can be created in the last week of August by what we hear at the symposium in Jackson Hole – especially it can be important for trading on early Monday. In addition to the reaction to the Fed chairman`s statements, political events in E...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/what-will-the-chairman-of-the-federal-reserve-sayhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/what-will-the-chairman-of-the-federal-reserve-sayThe event on Friday, August 23 is the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual central bankers symposium in Jackson Hole.<p>For 41 years, the Federal Reserve branch of Kansas City has been the organizer and sponsor of the symposium, which gathers central bankers, financial market participants, scientists and politicians. Topics of the US and world economy are discussed, as well as the approach to monetary policy. This year&#39;s theme will be the challenges for monetary policy. There are many, because nowadays there is again talk of monetary easing around the world. There is also the question of whether this makes sense, since the economy and inflation stopped responding to monetary stimuli in the same way as before the financial crisis.</p> <p>The Federal Reserve Chairman will speak today at 16. The interest rate market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times at 25 basis points by the end of the first quarter of 2020. At the end of 2020, another interest rate cut is expected. The probability of interest rate cuts in September is already 98 percent. To sum up, the market is counting on a new cycle of interest rate cuts in the US, and the Fed treats this only as a correction in the monetary policy tightening cycle.</p> <p>If Jerome Powell in his speech just gives up the term &quot;correction&quot;, mentions the possibility of re-using unconventional monetary policy tools or states that a strong US dollar interferes with inflation, these may be factors leading to a weakening of the US dollar. On the other hand, maintaining the opinion on the correction in the cycle of rates increases may lead to USD strengthening, as the interest rate market could reduce the valuation of interest rate cuts planned for the nearest period.</p> <p>On the fx options market, we can observe a relatively low expected EUR/USD exchange rate volatility. This means that investors from the options market do not see today&#39;s speech as an event significant for this currency pair. Bearish sentiment towards the euro remains on the options market. We observe more investors willing to insure themselves against the fall of the euro than before its rise. This is also reflected in the EUR/USD exchange rate, which on Friday noon sets new August lows, approaching the level of 1.1050.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 23 Aug 2019 12:49:00 +0200The event on Friday, August 23 is the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual central bankers symposium in Jackson Hole.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/nzd-rises-against-all-its-major-peershttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/nzd-rises-against-all-its-major-peersThe New Zealand dollar has been losing against the US dollar for five weeks. The NZD/USD exchange rate fell from 0.6785 to 0.6360, which was the largest decrease in this half-year. Monetary policy could have been one of the main factors affecting NZD`s weakness. <p>The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has decided to cut the main interest rate from 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent already in May, then surprise the investors at the beginning of August with a cut of 50 basis points. The market expected a cut of only a quarter percentage point. As a result, the main RBNZ interest rate fell to a record low of 1 percent. After the decision of early August, the central bank stated that the cut in rates is aimed at supporting inflation amidst weakening global economic activity and persistent trade tensions. Moreover, it was signaled that further rate cuts could be possible. This could have a negative impact on NZD.</p> <p>Currently, however, the situation has changed due to Friday statements of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Adrian Orr said the central bank may see the impact of a 50 bps cut this month before considering further action. Orr added that the RBNZ will do everything to support the economy and will monitor the impact on inflation after an unexpectedly large rate cut this month before considering further easing.</p> <p>This statement can be interpreted as a slight change of the RBNZ bias from the dovish to neutral for the time being. This, in turn, seems to affect the NZD/USD exchange rate, which is rising most of the major currency pairs this morning.</p> <p><img alt="NZD/USD daily chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/23-08-2019-a.png" /></p> <p><small>NZD/USD daily chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>On the chart the lower limit in the main trend channel has been defended. The NZD/USD exchange rate has turned back twice after the test of the line drawn through the recent bottom. Nevertheless, to be able to talk about a more permanent change in trend in this market, the NZD/USD currency pair would have to break the nearest resistance 0.6423 and 0.6484. It should also be remembered that today the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole, which is scheduled for 4 pm. may affect the US dollar.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 23 Aug 2019 10:14:00 +0200The New Zealand dollar has been losing against the US dollar for five weeks. The NZD/USD exchange rate fell from 0.6785 to 0.6360, which was the largest decrease in this half-year. Monetary policy could have been one of the main factors affecting NZD`s ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-zloty-is-still-under-pressure-the-mpc-did-not-see-any-reasons-to-raise-interest-rateshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-zloty-is-still-under-pressure-the-mpc-did-not-see-any-reasons-to-raise-interest-ratesThe Polish zloty has been systematically depreciating since the beginning of July this year. Since then, the PLN lost over 5 percent to the dollar, almost 4 percent to the euro. <p>Lower economic growth, the threat of a global economic slowdown along with a recession in Germany and a possible recession in the United States, as well as an outflow of capital from the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which could have been triggered by a revision of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, all this could accumulate and affect on the weakness of the zloty. One positive information is that the MSCI EM revision will take place at the closing of the session on August 26, so this factor will cease to affect PLN.</p> <p><img alt="USD/PLN daily chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/2019-08-22_15h27_19.jpg" /></p> <p><small>USD/PLN daily chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>The USD/PLN exchange rate set a high today (August 22). This is another highest level for over two years, and more precisely since April 2017. The zloty is weakening against the dollar in a fairly systematic way, which can be described as a trend channel. As long as its lower limit is not broken, it will be hard to talk about a change in the observed trend. Another key level is around PLN 3.90, where there was local resistance and now local support is located.</p> <p>The zloty is also not supported by the approach of the Monetary Policy Council, which is on a summer break and will meet again in September. Meanwhile, on Thursday we got the minutes of the MPC meeting in July. As it turned out, already at that time a motion for an increase in interest rates by 25 basis points was placed. MPC members Eugeniusz Gatnar and Kamil Zubelewicz backed a motion to raise the benchmark by a quarter point. However, it was rejected by other MPC members, including Adam Glapiński.</p> <p>The majority of the Council members expressed the opinion that considering current information, it was also likely that interest rates would stabilize in the coming quarters. They emphasized that the continued heightened uncertainty regarding the scale and persistence of the weakening of the global economic downturn, as well as its impact on the domestic economic climate, supports the interest rate stabilization.</p> <p>Paradoxically, if interest rates are not cut in Poland, this should be good news for the zloty, because until today market estimated at 40% the chance to cut interest rates by a 25pp. This could put additional pressure to sell PLN.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 22 Aug 2019 16:08:00 +0200The Polish zloty has been systematically depreciating since the beginning of July this year. Since then, the PLN lost over 5 percent to the dollar, almost 4 percent to the euro. https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/gold-a-market-to-watch-out-forhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/gold-a-market-to-watch-out-forFrom the beginning of May to the end of last week , gold increased by a total of 22 percent, taking into account the lower and higher price in this period. The gold price in US dollar has reached its highest level since April 2013, exceeding USD 1,500 per ounce.<p>Gold was in demand this year because of the turmoil in the global economy, which seems to be the consequence of the US trade war. The market and investors began to be interested in safe assets, including gold and bonds.</p> <p>When investors are worried about a recession and bond yields plunged, gold becomes even more attractive. The opinions of financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, also make investors look pro-growth at the gold market. According to GS, the bullion price is expected to rise to USD 1,600 per ounce within six months.</p> <p>We also observe the demand for gold through the increase in purchases of ETFs, which are gold-backed. The increase in total known ETF holdings has already reached 1,000 tonnes since the beginning of 2016. The total amount of gold owned by ETFs increased this week to 2444.9 tons, which is the highest value since 2013 - according to Bloomberg data. However, when everyone is eager to buy a financial instrument and expect its price to rise further, one should be careful.</p> <p>Such a conclusion results from the positioning of investors on the gold futures market. Non-commercial investors gradually increased their involvement in long positions, which allowed them to earn on rising gold prices. They have more than doubled long positions since the end of 2018. As a result, net long positions (difference between long and short positions) increased to the highest level since September 2016.</p> <p><img alt="Price of gold and non-commercial net long positions" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/gold-price.png" /></p> <p><small>Price of gold and non-commercial net long positions. Source: tradingster.com</small></p> <p>In the last decade, only once was the net position so high. From this point of view, the gold futures market may reach overbought levels. The level of overbought is a place where there are no new buyers, because the prices are too high. This, in turn, can lead to the &bdquo;long squeeze&quot;, and thus quickly closing long positions and taking profits. This is what should be considered now in the gold market.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 22 Aug 2019 13:13:00 +0200From the beginning of May to the end of last week (16 August), gold increased by a total of 22 percent, taking into account the lower and higher price in this period. The gold price in US dollar has reached its highest level since April 2013, exceeding ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/july-s-rate-cut-was-only-an-insurance-fed-minuteshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/july-s-rate-cut-was-only-an-insurance-fed-minutesThe minutes published on Wednesday evening after the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in the United States revealed details of the Fed`s first interest rate cut in over a decade. This did not change the attitude of market participants towards further Fed`s actions.<p>From the minutes we can conclude that a clear slowdown in economic growth outside the US, possibly related to trade uncertainty, seem to be an important factor contributing to signs of a slowdown in economic activity also in the United States. Moreover, despite signals from the previous meeting, many threats and uncertainties are still at an elevated level, especially in relation to the global economy and international trade. Regarding inflation outlook, it was noted that inflation and core inflation were still below the 2 percent target.</p> <p>In line with what the FX options market previously pointed out, market volatility during Wednesday&#39;s publication was very low. The EUR/USD exchange rate is not able to get out of the range of August 16 and has been in a sideways trend for several days. The volatility is around 40 pips.</p> <p><img alt="EUR/USD H4 chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/eur-usd.png" /></p> <p><small>EUR/USD H4 chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>The EUR/USD showed a classic sideways trend limited by resistance in the area of 1.1107 and support at 1.1066. Resistance can also be set by a line drawn through the tops. In this situation, we are usually expected to breakout of the upper or lower barrier. Only then we can expect a larger trend.</p> <p>Also we did not observe major changes on the interest rate market. This means that investors are almost 100 percent sure that the Fed will cut interest rates on 18 September by another quarter percentage point. What&#39;s more, by the end of 2019, the market expects another reduction to 1.50 percent. Therefore, investors expect a new cycle of reductions. The Federal Reserve rather calls it a cycle adjustment or &ldquo;insurance cut&rdquo;, as it is not known how the future of the trade war will unfold. Much also depends on other central banks and their interpretation of current events.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 22 Aug 2019 10:30:00 +0200The minutes published on Wednesday evening after the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the United States revealed details of the Fed`s first interest rate cut in over a decade. This did not change the attitude of market partici...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/oil-jumped-over-12-percent-in-two-weekshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/oil-jumped-over-12-percent-in-two-weeksFrom August 7, so in just two weeks, the price of WTI oil, extracted in the Gulf of Mexico, increased by more than 12 percent. What`s more, the price of oil is trying to break the downward trend line that has been set since the high of mid-July.<p>The oil market has recently been very sensitive to two issues. One of them is, of course, the trade war and its escalation between the United States and China, because it can lead to a greater slowdown in the global economy and thus lower oil demand, which may put pressure on falling oil prices. On the other hand, the market looks at weekly crude oil stockpiles in the United States.</p> <p>The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a fall in inventories by 3.45 million barrels last week. This in turn brings respite to investors concerned about the global economy. What&#39;s more, the announcements made by Saudi Arabia about a possible intervention in the oil market, which appeared in the first half of August, also helped.</p> <p><img alt="WTI oil, daily chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/ropa-wti.png" /></p> <p><small>WTI oil, daily chart. Source: Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>As a result, the price of oil defended the previously set support at the level of USD 50.74 per barrel. From this point on, the price of oil climbed up to test the downward trend line again. Today, this line is being broken, and if the bulls manage to close the daily candle above resistance, then the chances of changing sentiment will increase. Then the next target for the bulls may be around previous highs at 58.80 or 60.80 USD.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 21 Aug 2019 17:22:00 +0200From August 7, so in just two weeks, the price of WTI oil, extracted in the Gulf of Mexico, increased by more than 12 percent. What`s more, the price of oil is trying to break the downward trend line that has been set since the high of mid-July.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/black-scenario-for-the-british-poundhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/black-scenario-for-the-british-poundOnly slightly more than two months are left to the extended brexit period. At the end of October, Great Britain should leave the European Union in accordance with the will of the citizens expressed in the referendum. However, there is still no specific divorce agreement. Hence, a brexit scenario without a contract is still quite likely. <p>Attempts to change the agreement, which was negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May, do not bring results for the time being. Current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has prepared to travel to Germany and France to obtain support for renegotiating the divorce agreement. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday that there is no need to reconsider the existing brexit agreement.</p> <p>This reduces the chances of the successful mission of Prime Minister Johnson and can put pressure on the pound. According to the British bank Barclays in the case of hard brexit The Bank of England would be forced to cut interest rates by 50 basis points within one year.</p> <p>According to Barclays, the GBP/USD exchange rate could fall to 1.0900 from the current 1.2130. This is the black scenario for the pound against the US dollar. In turn, in relation to the euro the EUR/GBP exchange rate could increase by as much as 8 percent to around 0.9900, so close to parity.</p> <p><img alt="GBP/USD weekly chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/wykres-tygodniowy-GBP-USD.png" /></p> <p><small>GBP/USD weekly chart. Source: Conotoxia trading platform.</small></p> <p>From the chart&#39;s perspective, the recent GBP/USD decline has stopped near the lows which were set in October 2016 and January 2017. According to the assumptions of the technical analysis, breaking this support could only pave the way to lower levels. In the shorter term, the trend channel also seems to be important for the pound, as its upper and lower limits currently set the nearest resistance and support areas.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 21 Aug 2019 14:07:00 +0200Only slightly more than two months are left to the extended brexit period. At the end of October, Great Britain should leave the European Union in accordance with the will of the citizens expressed in the referendum. However, there is still no specific ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/euro-before-the-fed-minutes-and-symposium-in-jackson-holehttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/euro-before-the-fed-minutes-and-symposium-in-jackson-holeThe major currency pair EUR/USD is waiting for the most important events of the week, i.e. the publication of the minutes after the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve and for the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole .<p>EUR/USD reached the lowest level since the end of July amid deteriorating macroeconomic data from the euro area and falling inflation. As a consequence, this increases the chances of substantial monetary easing by the European Central Bank in September and these expectations seemed to put pressure on the euro. However, investors expect that on September 18 the Fed will also decide to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but earlier significant events may occur during the mentioned symposium of central bankers.</p> <p>The fx options market, which can value volatility and potential threats (because it can serve as a place where you can insure yourself against unfavorable moves on the underlying market), indicates the possibility of a fall of the EUR/USD. The behavior of the options market indicates the possibility of falling EUR/USD below 1.1000 by the end of August. The chances for such a decrease have tripled since the first half of August to 49 percent. &ndash; results from the Bloomberg option pricing model.</p> <p>Nevertheless, despite the increasing bearish sentiment on the EUR/USD currency pair on the options market, volatility remains relatively low. This means that investors in the options market do not assume that the Jackson Hole symposium will bring something special and shake up the markets.</p> <p><img alt="EUR/USD daily chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/wykres-dzienny-eur-usd.png" /></p> <p><small>EUR/USD daily chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>On the chart, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been creating a potential descending wedge pattern for a year. In this formation, its upper and lower limits converge, and the market reduces its range of fluctuations. Thus, the level of 1.1000 may be another possible support. In turn, a change in trend could occur only when the upper limit in the described pattern is broken. However, this is still far from the current EUR/USD rate.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 21 Aug 2019 10:18:00 +0200The major currency pair EUR/USD is waiting for the most important events of the week, i.e. the publication of the minutes after the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Wednesday, August 21 at 8pm) and for the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/swiss-national-bank-closer-to-interest-rate-cutshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/swiss-national-bank-closer-to-interest-rate-cutsThere is growing pressure from investors for global easing of monetary policy, and thus interest rates cut by the largest central banks in the world, as well as other activities aimed at stimulating the economy and inflation.<p>It seems that the European Central Bank is currently under the greatest pressure, as it did not even manage to normalize monetary policy after the crisis a decade ago, and is already forced to take further action. The most likely scenario here is at least a cut in the deposit rate and possible resumption of the asset purchase program. Such market expectations together with the increase in investors&#39; risk aversion may have resulted in a significant strengthening of the Swiss franc.</p> <p>On the currency market, the EUR/CHF has fallen to its lowest level since June 2016, attracting the attention of the Swiss Central Bank (SNB). The Swiss have no strong franc, which they expressed in 2011, introducing a minimum exchange rate in the EUR / CHF pair at 1.2000. At that time, Europe was in crisis, and capital was returning to Switzerland very quickly. The current rate of franc appreciation is not so spectacular, but it may put pressure on the SNB&#39;s decision, especially when the European Central Bank is preparing to ease its monetary policy.</p> <p><img alt="EUR/CHF Monthly chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/wykres-eur-chf.png" /></p> <p><small>EUR/CHF Monthly chart. Source: Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>The Swiss do not like the strong franc, they expressed it in 2011 by introducing a minimum exchange rate in the EUR/CHF pair at 1.2000. At that time, Europe was in crisis, and capital was returning to Switzerland very quickly. The current rate of franc appreciation is not so spectacular, but it may put pressure on the SNB&#39;s decision, especially when the European Central Bank is preparing to ease monetary policy.</p> <p>In a Bloomberg agency survey, 5 out of 17 respondents expressed the opinion that the main interest rate in Switzerland would be reduced by 25 basis points. As early as in July, only 1 respondent presented such a view. UBS Group or Raiffeisen Bank belong to institutions that currently predict that SNB will lower interest rates from the lowest level in the world of -0.75 percent.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the interest rate market is pricing the possibility of cutting interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on the basis of futures contracts. Recent data suggest that the Swiss central bank has already taken steps to reduce the franc&#39;s strength by intervening in the currency market. The next SNB meeting will take place on 19 September, but the Swiss National Bank is known for being able to make important decisions between meetings. Therefore, with every moment when the franc strengthens, it is worth being vigilant.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comTue, 20 Aug 2019 16:07:00 +0200There is growing pressure from investors for global easing of monetary policy, and thus interest rates cut by the largest central banks in the world, as well as other activities aimed at stimulating the economy and inflation.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/positive-information-for-the-australian-dollarhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/positive-information-for-the-australian-dollarAmong the most important currencies in the world, the Australian dollar was gaining the most versus the US dollar this morning. As a result, the AUD/USD exchange rate is still trying to stay above the support set by the „flash crash" low in early January.<p>Investors were selling of the Australian currency, awaiting the dovish bias of the Australian central bank, which in June and July decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points. At the time, such strong action was supported by the view that inflation would return to the 2 percent target in a longer period than previously expected. In turn, the country&#39;s economic growth was to be lower than previously forecast. It was further believed that the RBA would be ready to lower interest rates later in the year, because the escalation of tensions in the US-China trade war would pose a growing risk to the economy.</p> <p>Meanwhile, a minutes was released tonight from the central bank meeting on August 6. In minutes, the RBA signals a better outlook for economic growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia has stated that tax cuts, infrastructure spending and the recent easing of monetary policy provide the opportunity for GDP growth. However, the Australian Central Bank will be ready to cut interest rates if it thinks that this action will actually boost economic growth. RBA also reviewed global experiences with unconventional steps in monetary policy.</p> <p><img alt="Daily chart AUD/USD" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/wykres-dzienny-AUD-USD.png" /></p> <p><small>AUD/USD daily chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>On the daily chart, AUD/USD is still above the low, which was set by the &bdquo;flash crash&quot; that occurred at the beginning of the year. &bdquo;Flash crash&quot; is a very sharp drop in the price of a financial instrument most often caused by low liquidity on a given market along with the execution of automatic orders.</p> <p>If the January low is defended, investors will be able to count on the very extensive double bottom pattern. This formation is usually a trend reversal pattern. Only beating the low from January would negate this pattern.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comTue, 20 Aug 2019 10:31:00 +0200Among the most important currencies in the world, the Australian dollar was gaining the most versus the US dollar this morning. As a result, the AUD/USD exchange rate is still trying to stay above the support set by the „flash crash" low in early Januar...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/markets-expect-massive-help-for-the-economyhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/markets-expect-massive-help-for-the-economyInflation in the euro area, the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank report seem to be the main topics of macroeconomic events that may affect financial markets on Monday, August 19. There was also information about the stimulus package being prepared by the German government.<p>Data released today from the euro area show that the annual inflation rate in July in the euro area fell to 1 percent from 1.3 percent in the previous month and below the initial estimate of 1.1 percent. This was the lowest inflation since November 2016. As a result, inflation has moved further away from the target of the European Central Bank, which can only increase expectations for the ECB&#39;s decision in September.</p> <p>The ECB is already expected to announce new steps to revitalize the eurozone economy on 12 September, with most economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipating at least a reduction in the deposit rate. President Mario Draghi signaled last month that all options are possible, including the potential restart of quantitative easing. It would not be a big surprise for the market to re-launch the QE program by the ECB, which is another asset purchase program.</p> <p>Help for the economy can also come from the German government. The German central bank Bundesbank warned in its report that German production will remain weak in the third quarter and may continue to fall slightly. This in turn could translate into another quarter in which Germany&#39;s GDP will shrink. In that case, we could talk about a recession. Therefore, in addition to monetary stimulus, there is also talk of fiscal stimulus.</p> <p>On Sunday, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said Germany is ready to spend an additional USD 55 billion on the economic crisis. This improved market sentiment, which primarily reflects the improvement in stock market indexes. German DAX rose 1.5 percent in the afternoon American stock indices also increased by over 1 percent. The most important thing for markets now can be the implementation of stimulus packages from the central bank and politicians. The institutions had previously set the direction for markets, now it seems that markets are putting pressure on both central banks and politicians.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 19 Aug 2019 15:13:00 +0200Inflation in the euro area, the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank report seem to be the main topics of macroeconomic events that may affect financial markets on Monday, August 19. There was also information about the stimulus package being prepar...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-desire-to-sell-the-euro-decreaseshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-desire-to-sell-the-euro-decreasesSince the beginning of last year, the euro has been systematically depreciating against the US dollar, which resulted in the EUR/USD exchange rate falling from around 1.2500 to 1.1050. As a result, the dollar reached the highest level to the euro since May 2017.<p>The single currency was primarily affected by weakening macroeconomic data, which pointed to a worsening economic situation in the euro area. At the same time, interest rates were raised in the United States, which created divergence in the monetary policy of the two central banks. Along with the falling price of the euro, investors began to increase their involvement in short positions on the futures market.</p> <p>A short position may gain as the price of a given financial instrument decreases, in this case the euro. According to the American CFTC commission, 86,000 short positions among non-commercial investors were open in April 2018. However, already in April 2019 their number exceeded 250,000. It seems natural that as the market situation develops, investors follow the price and get more and more involved in a given trend.</p> <p>Nevertheless, there has recently been a significant discrepancy between price and investor behavior. Namely, the EUR/USD exchange rate reached a new two-year low two weeks ago, while investors on the futures market did not increase their involvement in the short positions.</p> <p><img alt="EUR/USD and non-commercial net long positions" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/eur-usd-and-long-positions.png" /></p> <p><small>EUR/USD and non-commercial net long positions</small></p> <p>In the chart above, we can clearly see that the net long positions (difference between long and short positions) had their low in May with the decrease of EUR/USD. Meanwhile, the latest euro fall did not lead to greater investor involvement, and no new low appeared in net long positions. This may mean that the desire to sell the euro is decreasing, which would consequently seem to end the long-term downward trend.</p> <p>However, for this to happen, new data from the economy and central banks as well as political impulses will be needed. A strong dollar bothers US President Donald Trump, and the Fed has room for surprise. In turn, the cut of interest rates in the euro area by 20 basis points is almost entirely priced in by the market.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 19 Aug 2019 10:12:00 +0200Since the beginning of last year, the euro has been systematically depreciating against the US dollar, which resulted in the EUR/USD exchange rate falling from around 1.2500 to 1.1050. As a result, the dollar reached the highest level to the euro since ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-august-19-25-it-s-jackson-hole-timehttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-august-19-25-it-s-jackson-hole-timeThe trade conflict between the United States and China, and the attempt to ease it, will again attract the attention of investors. This, in turn, may translate into further investors fears about the scale of the global economic slowdown or recession, which we have already seen recently after the sharp fall in stock indices and the rally in the bond market.<p>Donald Trump&#39;s statements are number one topic for markets. Any US President&#39;s tweet is able to shake the financial markets and put investors in a very good or very bad mood. Recently, however, Donald Trump has to save the situation more often, because sentiment is rather pessimistic. We will see if the second half of August will bring an increase in optimism.</p> <p>Optimism for the markets may appear during the annual symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, which will be held on August 22-24 in Wyoming, USA. Every year since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has sponsored a symposium on important economic issues facing the United States and global economies. The symposium participants are central bankers, finance ministers, scientists and financial market participants from around the world.</p> <p>This year, the theme of the symposium will be the challenges for monetary policy. Jackson Hole has been important for the investors thanks to statements made by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in 2007-2012. All speeches in 2007-2009 had key importance during the financial crisis, while the speeches in 2010-2012 were the announcements of new QE2 round in November 2010, Operation Twist in September 2011, QE3 in September 2012. In particular, his speeches of 2010 and 2012 gave clear indications about the direct operation of the Federal Reserve.</p> <p>Currently, due to a situation that is getting out of control, history may repeat itself. Therefore, investors&#39; attention may focus on the symposium, awaiting the Fed&#39;s announcement of further measures to stimulate the economy. This seems like a good place to make a pre-emptive move. The symposium and speeches therefore seem to be the culmination of next week.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 16 Aug 2019 15:47:00 +0200The trade conflict between the United States and China, and the attempt to ease it, will again attract the attention of investors. This, in turn, may translate into further investors fears about the scale of the global economic slowdown or recession, wh...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-financial-market-calms-downhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-financial-market-calms-downIt is a long weekend in Poland, investors may look less closely at market events. Hence, in this commentary, we present what is happening on financial markets and how recent macroeconomic data were developed.<p>Before August 15, investors were clearly frightened by the prospects of an impending recession, when the German economy contracted and the yield curves in the United States and Great Britain inverted. In the last 50 years in the USA, every time when the inversion of the yield curve was observed, then after an average of 18 months a recession appeared. It seems that this mainly led to a huge decline in stock indices around the world. Now the situation seems to be stabilizing.</p> <p>Donald Trump led the situation to calm down. The US president announced that he would soon have a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Investors see this announcement as an opportunity to reduce the tension in the trade conflict between the two nations. In the currency market, this was supposed to translate into the strengthening of the Australian dollar, which is at the highest levels compared to the New Zealand dollar in six weeks.</p> <p><img alt="AUD/NZD daily chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/daily-chart-AUD-NZD.png" /></p> <p><small>AUD/NZD, daily chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>Meanwhile, in New Zealand, 10-year bond yields fell below 1 percent for the first time in history to 0.979 percent. What&#39;s more, the PMI signaled the first decline in production since 2012, which falls to 48.2 points. The RBNZ (New Zealand Central Bank) analysis shows that interest rate cuts should continue to increase GDP and inflation. Hence the weakness of NZD.</p> <p>After a sharp decline on Thursday, August 15, the Polish zloty stabilizes. At some point, the USD/PLN exchange rate exceeded 3.94, the euro 4.39, and the pound cost over 4.78 PLN. Currently, the largest correction is observed on the EUR/PLN pair to the level of 4.35. However, due to the summer break, the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Council will take place in the first half of September and only then we will hear comments on the extraordinary weakness of the Polish currency.</p> <p>In turn, the major currency pair EUR/USD fell below 1.1100 to a two-week low after comments from the representative of the European Central Bank. Olli Rehn said that a significant monetary easing package is needed in September. The interest rate market is already valuing the option of cutting rates by almost 20 basis points.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 16 Aug 2019 11:06:00 +0200It is a long weekend in Poland, investors may look less closely at market events. Hence, in this commentary, we present what is happening on financial markets and how recent macroeconomic data were developed.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/recession-on-the-horizon-what-is-yield-curve-inversionhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/recession-on-the-horizon-what-is-yield-curve-inversionThe word recession is very common today. Although the slowdown in the world economy has already been pointed out earlier, it has been officially started today that the world is afraid of recession. Here is why.<p>The inversion of the yield curve in the United States and in the United Kingdom is the main event that has increased the fear of recession and thus increased risk aversion, drop in the stock market and a rebound in gold and silver prices. This is the first inversion since the financial crisis a decade ago. It was then that the inversion of the yield curve heralded the arrival of the financial crisis. Now investors are also afraid of that.</p> <p>The yield curve is a graphic reflection of a given country&#39;s debt yield. From bonds with the shortest maturity to bonds with the longest maturity. The benchmark for the yield curve was to compare the interest rate on 10-year bonds with 2-year bonds. Under normal circumstances, the interest rate on 10-year bonds is higher than 2-year bonds because investors demand a higher risk premium for borrowing money for 10 years than for 2 years. The term of two years is more predictable for an investor than ten.</p> <p><img alt="United States yield curve" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/2019-08-14_15_50.jpg" /></p> <p><small>United States yield curve. Source: http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com</small></p> <p>However, it happens like now that investors will receive higher interest for investing in 2-year bonds than in 10-year bonds. This also makes borrowing money more expensive in the short term than in the long run. In these circumstances, companies often feel that financing their business is more expensive, and management tends to temper or put off investment. Consumer loan costs are also rising and consumer spending is slowing down. Ultimately, the economy is shrinking and unemployment is rising.</p> <p>Such an event in the recent 50-year history of the United States has always been ahead of the recession on average 18 months in advance. In other words, in a year and a half from now on, there have been five recessions on average in the last five decades. The yield curve also inverted in the UK. If we add shrinking Germany&#39;s GDP in the second quarter and very poor data from China, then we have a recipe for a scary mix for the investors.</p> <p>A mixture that also causes capital outflow from Poland, which can be seen in the falling WIG20 and the zloty depreciating dramatically. Germany and Great Britain are countries that account for one third of Poland&#39;s exports. If there is a recession there, then Poland&#39;s exports will be very threatened, and thus the entire economy.</p> <p>For the yield curve to reverse again, investors would have to see the chances of improving economic growth and inflation, and central banks would have to cut interest rates in a panic to quickly lower interest rates in the short term.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 14 Aug 2019 16:00:00 +0200The word recession is very common today. Although the slowdown in the world economy has already been pointed out earlier, it has been officially started today that the world is afraid of recession. Here is why.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/trump-improved-market-sentiment-but-only-for-a-momenthttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/trump-improved-market-sentiment-but-only-for-a-momentYesterday`s reaction of financial markets clearly shows which issue is currently the most important for investors and who is the main player on the market. It is Donald Trump and his tariffs decisions, which yesterday afternoon definitely improved the mood of investors, especially on the Wall Street. <p>The US administration issued a statement yesterday (August 13) in which it announced the next steps in the process of imposing additional tariffs of 10 percent for Chinese products worth around $ 300 billion. On May 17, 2019, a list of products imported from China that would potentially be subject to an additional 10 percent tariff was published. The new tariffs will come into effect on September 1, as President Trump announced.</p> <p>However, it was agreed that tariffs should be delayed until December 15 for some articles. Products in this group include, for example, mobile phones, laptops, video game consoles, some toys, computer monitors and some elements of footwear and clothing. This information improved sentiment in the markets.</p> <p>The US stock indices began a sharp rise, oil prices soared to their highest levels since the beginning of the month. The Japanese yen clearly weakened and the USD/JPY exchange rate jumped from 105.00 to 107.00. As a result of the above decision, gold and silver prices fell, and the increase in bond prices stopped.</p> <p>Nevertheless, the most important question is whether the delay in imposing tariffs on some products will be able to improve sentiment for a long time. It seems rather not, because subsequent data point to a significant deterioration in the global economy.</p> <p>Industrial production in China was published on August 14. Industrial production increased in July 2019 by 4.8 percent y/y. This was the weakest annual increase in industrial production since February 2002. Reasons: growing trade dispute with the US and weak domestic demand. Moreover, in the second quarter the German economy shrank by 0.1 percent in relation to the first quarter, and this also spoils sentiment in the markets. That is why we do not observe such optimism this morning as we did yesterday afternoon.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 14 Aug 2019 10:14:00 +0200Yesterday`s reaction of financial markets clearly shows which issue is currently the most important for investors and who is the main player on the market. It is Donald Trump and his tariffs decisions, which yesterday afternoon definitely improved the m...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/german-investor-sentiment-tumbles-to-over-7-year-lowhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/german-investor-sentiment-tumbles-to-over-7-year-lowData released today for Germany and the euro area show quite clearly that it is difficult to find optimists on the market who would predict a recovery. Quite the opposite – sentiment get worse from month to month to levels that have not been observed for years.<p>The increasing risk of recession in the largest economy of the eurozone has effectively influenced the pessimistic assessment of the economic situation by investors and the reading of the expectations index of the ZEW institute (Zentrum fur Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung - European Center for Economic Research based in Mannheim). The index fell in August to -44.1 points, which means a drop by as much as 19.6 points compared to the reading a month before. What&#39;s more, this is the fourth month in a row of the decline and the lowest publication since December 2011.</p> <p>The German economy probably shrunk in the second quarter due to the ongoing trade war, which resulted in a decline in demand and hit exports. Big companies: Lufthansa, Daimler or Continental warn against a worsening situation. This, in turn, may affect the German DAX index available on the Conotoxia platform under the symbol DE30.</p> <p><img alt="DE30, weekly chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/weekly-chart-DE30.png" /></p> <p><small>DE30, weekly chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>The German index is trying today (13 August) to break the support given by the bottom from the first half of June. Theoretically, if the bears&#39; attack succeeds, then the chances of a double-top pattern could increase.</p> <p>Today we also got the reading of the ZEW economic sentiment index for the entire euro area, which thanks to the weight of Germany in measurements fell to -43.6 points. It is also the lowest value of 2011 and the fourth month of decline in a row. Research shows that more than half of those surveyed, 53.9 percent, expect a deterioration in economic activity, 35.8 percent does not expect any changes, and barely 10.3 percent. expecting improvement.</p> <p>Such negative sentiment regarding the economic situation may put pressure on the European Central Bank and expectations of a loosening of monetary policy. The next ECB meeting will take place on September 12.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comTue, 13 Aug 2019 15:45:00 +0200Data released today for Germany and the euro area show quite clearly that it is difficult to find optimists on the market who would predict a recovery. Quite the opposite – sentiment get worse from month to month to levels that have not been observed fo...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-demand-for-gold-and-silver-is-still-highhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-demand-for-gold-and-silver-is-still-highSince the beginning of the year, the price of gold in US dollars has increased by almost 20 percent, and silver by almost 12 percent. Only this month the price increase exceeded 6 percent. In times of increased economic and political uncertainty, capital is headed towards safe assets, i.e. precious metals.<p>The trade conflict between the US and China has recently escalated, and there have been further protests in Hong Kong that resulted in the protesters closing down the city&#39;s main airport. Moreover, there are considerations as to whether the Chinese authorities will take steps to calm the situation, which in turn would increase nervousness in the markets. The collapse of the currency exchange rate in Argentina and the stock market after the announcement of the results of the presidential primaries could also affect safe assets - including gold.</p> <p>It is also worth noting that the Goldman Sachs bank, well known to investors, raised its forecasts for gold. The three-month forecast was raised to USD 1,575 per ounce, and the six-month forecast to USD 1,600. Forecasts have been revised mainly due to the trade dispute and the depreciation of the Chinese currency. An increase in risk aversion and a decrease in bond yields also play an important role, which, according to GS, is expected to have a positive impact on the price of gold.</p> <p>Institutional investors have also recently increased their involvement in long positions on gold futures, according to CFTC data. Net long positions (difference between long and short positions) increased to the highest level since September 2016.</p> <p><img alt="Gold contract and Non Commercial net long positions" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/F_wykres_13_08_2019_a.png" /></p> <p><small>Gold contract and Non Commercial net long positions. Source: tradingster</small></p> <p>The chart illustrates a strong trend because price increases are supported by the increasing involvement of market participants. Nevertheless, we are approaching historical overbought levels, which for some investors may be a signal to take appropriate steps.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comTue, 13 Aug 2019 11:29:00 +0200Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold in US dollars has increased by almost 20 percent, and silver by almost 12 percent. Only this month the price increase exceeded 6 percent. In times of increased economic and political uncertainty, capita...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/speculators-stop-counting-on-a-strong-dollarhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/speculators-stop-counting-on-a-strong-dollarThe American currency has had a very successful 2018 and the first half of 2019. During this time, the USD index futures contract increased by almost 12 percent to the round level of 100 points. However, since April, the index has had more and more problems with continuing earlier increases.<p>The Dollar index is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar&#39;s value relative to following select currencies: Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight, Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight, Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight, Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight, Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight, Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight according to ICE (Intercontinental Exchange). Earlier, one of the main factors that contributed to the appreciation of the USD seemed to be likely to further tighten monetary policy by the Fed. However, this bias changed at the end of the year, and now we know that there won&rsquo;t be any rate hikes. The market and investors are now bidding for how many interest rate cuts should occur. This, in turn, can hit the US dollar.</p> <p>Leveraged funds (speculators) have been reducing their expectations since the beginning of July due to a further increase in the dollar index. Net long positions (difference between long and short positions) fell last week to their lowest level since the end of May. More importantly, the decline occurred along with the rise of the US dollar.</p> <p><img alt="Leverage funds net long positions and USD futures contract" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/F_wykres_12_08_2019_b-1.png" /></p> <p><small>Leverage funds net long positions and USD futures contract. Source: tradingster</small></p> <p>The observed discrepancy between positioning and the futures contract can be interpreted as a reluctance to buy contracts at such high prices. What&#39;s more, there may be a process of closing previous positions. It is worth noting that the observed discrepancy already forms a total of eight months. At the beginning of 2019, the largest number of net long positions was recorded and since then they began to fall with the dollar still high.</p> <p>If the dollar were to fall, because, for example, the Fed would ease monetary policy more radically than previously thought, then due to the composition of the dollar index it could have the greatest impact on the EUR/USD currency pair. Here, in turn, thanks to the correlation and relatively small volatility in the EUR/PLN pair, it could also affect the USD/PLN exchange rate, which is trying to turn back from two-year highs.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 12 Aug 2019 17:00:00 +0200The American currency has had a very successful 2018 and the first half of 2019. During this time, the USD index futures contract increased by almost 12 percent to the round level of 100 points. However, since April, the index has had more and more prob...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/british-pound-negative-sentiment-has-increasedhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/british-pound-negative-sentiment-has-increasedInvestors and economists do not currently have the best opinion on the British pound. Both assume a further decline in the value of the British currency. This is indicated by forecasts, positioning on futures contracts and fx options.<p>We have recently mentioned that the median expectations of banks from a survey conducted by the Bloomberg agency on the GBP/USD pair is 1.10 in the case of hard brexit. There were also forecasts that in the worst scenario GBP/USD may fall even to the level of parity, which has never been observed before. Not only the forecasts assume a pound fall, but also investors.</p> <p>According to traders in the currency options market, investors are increasingly insuring themselves against further depreciation of the British currency. The cost of such insurance is steadily increasing. For the time horizon of one and up to two months, it is the highest since April this year. For the three-month options, the cost of insurance against the GBP/USD exchange rate drop in turn increased to the levels we observed in February and March.</p> <p>Negative sentiment towards the pound seems to also prevail in the futures market. According to the latest CFTC data, speculators (leveraged funds) increased the short positions over long positions (net long positions) to levels unobserved since April 2017. The asset managers has also increased the short positions over long positions to a level unseen for at least a decade.</p> <p><img alt="Leverage funds and asset managers net long positions and pound futures contract" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/long-positions.png" /></p> <p><small>Leverage funds and asset managers net long positions and pound futures contract. Source: tradingster</small></p> <p>Of course, in such a situation there may appear a group of investors with a contrarian attitude towards the market. If there is so much pessimism and the market is so focused on one-way trade, maybe the trend is nearing to the end? This, of course, everyone has to consider for themselves, while the topic of early elections in the UK and extension of the brexit deadline is increasingly being considered, which would be better for GBP than hard Brexit.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 12 Aug 2019 10:43:00 +0200Investors and economists do not currently have the best opinion on the British pound. Both assume a further decline in the value of the British currency. This is indicated by forecasts, positioning on futures contracts and fx options.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-august-12-18https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-august-12-18Currently, each week can be an interesting week because of the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China. Investors will also be wondering how the trade conflict will affect American companies, because we can already hear about the possible reduction of employment in American companies. <p>The beginning of August brought very high volatility in many asset classes. From the worst session on the stock market in 2019 to the rally on the bond market and multi-year highs on the gold market. In turn, the price of oil has fallen to the lowest level this year, which caused Saudi Arabia to start thinking about intervention in this market. There are many indications that the current summer holidays may be still exciting for investors.</p> <p>It is worth paying attention to data from the American economy, especially those regarding inflation (Tuesday, August 13, 14:30). Also Thursday, August 15, will bring a number of publications from the US. In the face of trade war, all data is important, as investors will look for the negative impact of tariffs on business. There is a concern that recent events may worsen sentiment and lead to higher costs. This, in turn, it can make companies more reluctant to invest and hire new employees, which can lead to a economic slowdown.</p> <p>It will not be possible to ignore the euro zone data either. On Wednesday, August 14 at 11:00, the second-quarter GDP review and industrial production will be published. In turn, on Friday, August 16 at 11:00, the trade balance will be published. Due to recent weak data from Germany, investors will be able to see if the problem of strong economic slowdown concerns only this country or the entire euro area.</p> <p>Regarding central banks, on Thursday, August 15 at 10:00 the Norges Bank decision on interest rates will be published. Norway is the only country where interest rates have been raised since the beginning of the year despite the deteriorating global situation. Investors will be awaiting a statement in which there may be hints as to whether the central bank will continue to raise interest rates and, if so, when. It is also worth paying attention to the USD/NOK pair, where the rate reached resistance at 9.00.</p> <p><img alt="USD/NOK monthly chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/09-08-2019eng.png" /></p> <p><small>USD/NOK monthly chart. Conotoxia trading platform.</small></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 09 Aug 2019 14:37:00 +0200Currently, each week can be an interesting week because of the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China. Investors will also be wondering how the trade conflict will affect American companies, because we can already hear about the p...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/pound-could-plunge-to-parityhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/pound-could-plunge-to-parityLess than three months left to the extended brexit deadline, which is to take place at the end of October. Hence, there are more and more forecasts indicating the possible development of events and trying to determine if and how the pound exchange rate will change.<p>Market and economists agree that the likelihood of hard brexit has increased over the past six months. In this case, if the United Kingdom left the European Union without a deal, the British pound in relation to the US dollar could fall to the level it was last seen in 1985 - according to a survey conducted by the Bloomberg agency.</p> <p>The median expectations of the 13 banks surveyed indicate a GBP/USD exchange rate of 1.10 if a hard Brexit occurs. According to respondents, there are 30 percent chances of implementing such a scenario. This is three times more likely than in February. If the above assumptions were met, the British pound could fall by about 9-10 percent.</p> <p>Other scenarios were also taken into account in the survey: reaching agreement by the end of October, another brexit delay and general election. For the first of these scenarios, the median expectations for GBP/USD is 1.33, which in relation to the current level would mean a significant increase in the price of the pound. For the second scenario, an increase to 1.26 is estimated, and for the third, a decrease to 1.19.</p> <p>The most pessimistic forecast for the British pound was recently presented by the Morgan Stanley bank, which assumes that in the absence of an agreement with the European Union, GBP/USD will fall to parity. 1.00 has never been seen before. Only once in 1985 the GBP/USD fall below 1.10 to 1.05. It would therefore be a historical event.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 09 Aug 2019 09:43:00 +0200Less than three months left to the extended brexit deadline, which is to take place at the end of October. Hence, there are more and more forecasts indicating the possible development of events and trying to determine if and how the pound exchange rate ...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-fed-under-increasing-political-pressurehttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-fed-under-increasing-political-pressurePresident Donald Trump is still criticizing the US central bank, exerting increasing pressure to ease monetary policy. Trump`s recent statements point to his great determination.<p>President Trump said in social media that more central banks are cutting interest rates. He added that China is not the US problem. &quot;The problem of the United States is the Federal Reserve, too proud to admit the mistake of raising interest rates too quickly,&quot; wrote Donald Trump. He added that the Fed must cut interest rates to a much greater extent.</p> <p>New Zealand, India, Thailand &ndash; central banks of these countries cut interest rates this week more than expected. There are also many indications that the European Central Bank is also preparing to take more decisive action in order to fight the weakening economy and low inflation. All this could have influenced Donald Trump&#39;s statements. It can also put pressure on the Federal Reserve itself.</p> <p>Pressure on the Fed does not only result from political pressure, but also from market pressure. Investors expect with 85 percent probability that in September the Federal Reserve will decide to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. And that would not be the end of monetary easing in the US. If the Fed, which is quite resistant at the moment, changes its mind, it may also affect the US currency.</p> <p>More interest rate cuts in the United States could put pressure on the US dollar, and then President Trump could announce his triumph, because not only that the Fed would cut rates, the dollar would also get cheaper. It would fit perfectly into the campaign before the presidential election in the US, which will take place next year.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 08 Aug 2019 15:45:00 +0200President Donald Trump is still criticizing the US central bank, exerting increasing pressure to ease monetary policy. Trump`s recent statements point to his great determination.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/saudi-arabia-is-talking-about-a-possible-intervention-in-the-oil-markethttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/saudi-arabia-is-talking-about-a-possible-intervention-in-the-oil-marketFrom mid-July to Wednesday, August 7, the price of a barrel of WTI oil fell by more than 17 percent from around $ 61 to $ 50.50. Only on Wednesday, the drop was almost 5 percent and as a consequence the price of the WTI barrel was at its lowest since the beginning of 2019, which worried the producers of oil and the OPEC.<p>The price of oil now seems to depend on how the trade conflict between the United States and China develops. Its escalation may increase concerns about a deeper economic slowdown or recession. In this case, when the economy slows down, the demand for oil decreases. In turn, lower demand may affect the price, which according to the basic principles of economics should be lower in such a case. As a result, oil prices have fallen to January levels this week.</p> <p>The price decline is unfavorable for producers and the OPEC cartel, which, together with its allies OPEC +, cuts production in order to keep prices at a relatively higher level. Hence, on Wednesday, Saudi Arabia was to contact other oil producers to take steps that could prevent a further decline in oil prices.</p> <p>Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil producer in the world and has cut production more than what was agreed between the OPEC countries, will not tolerate a further decline in oil prices. All options are possible, including market intervention - news agencies said. This news seems to lead to a slight rebound in oil prices on Thursday, but at least stopped the fall in prices.</p> <p>The next meeting of OPEC and OPEC + will start on 9 September in Abu Dhabi. There are many indications that talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia leaders will be key, and investors may expect oil producers to adapt their policies to recent market developments.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 08 Aug 2019 11:17:00 +0200From mid-July to Wednesday, August 7, the price of a barrel of WTI oil fell by more than 17 percent from around $ 61 to $ 50.50. Only on Wednesday, the drop was almost 5 percent and as a consequence the price of the WTI barrel was at its lowest since th...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-debt-market-is-in-the-spotlighthttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-debt-market-is-in-the-spotlightThe sovereign bond market is now in the center of the attention of investors around the world. The change in central bank policy along with the lack of rising inflation and the escalation of the conflict between the US and China seem to be strengthening the bull market in the debt market.<p>Yields on 30-year US bonds fell to their lowest level ever. The yield on 10-year US bonds was the lowest in three years, and 2-year bonds fell below 1.6 percent. As a consequence of the more strongly falling yields at the longer end, there is an increasing inversion of the yield curve.</p> <p><img alt="Increasing yield curve inversion" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/yield-curve.jpg" /></p> <p><small>Increasing yield curve inversion. Source: investing.com</small></p> <p>In practice, this may mean that the market is very worried about economic slowdown or recession and is also counting on further easing of monetary policy.</p> <p>We observe demand for bonds not only in the US but also globally. In Australia, the yield on 10-year bonds fell to 0.955 percent, the lowest in history. Meanwhile, the interest rate on 10-year German bonds reaches almost -0.6 percent, which is also a level never seen before. All this seems to confirm that the market is seriously considering global monetary easing due to uncertainty about the future economic situation caused by the trade war.</p> <p>With such a bull market in the debt market, we may observe a definite slump in the stock market. However, there is no lasting decline in share prices, because the economy is doing very well at the moment. Moreover, expectations for help from central banks mean that investors in the stock market do not assume the worst scenario. Therefore, it seems that corporate profits and their outlook are still key for global stock exchanges. If the situation worsened here then it could actually translate into the stock market.</p> <p><img alt="Weekly chart of S&amp;P 500" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/weekly-chart-SP500.png" /></p> <p><small>Weekly chart of S&amp;P 500. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>It seems that we have been dealing with a disinflationary slowdown in the economy for a long time, which seems to be beneficial for the bond market. Theoretically, after this phase of the cycle should come a phase of disinflationary recovery, which in turn may be beneficial for the stock market. Perhaps by then stock prices might fall and it could be more attractive.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 07 Aug 2019 15:52:00 +0200The sovereign bond market is now in the center of the attention of investors around the world. The change in central bank policy along with the lack of rising inflation and the escalation of the conflict between the US and China seem to be strengthening...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-surprised-the-market-nzd-plummethttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-surprised-the-market-nzd-plummetOn Wednesday night, the New Zealand dollar fell in relation to the US dollar over 2 percent. The NZD/USD exchange rate fell to its lowest level since January 2016 after a surprising cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.<p>The market and investors assumed that as the conflict between the United States and China escalated, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would be more supportive of cutting the main interest rate at the August meeting. The market consensus assumed a cut of a quarter percentage point. Nevertheless, RBNZ surprised investors with a cut of half a percentage point, which could have plunged the New Zealand dollar. What&#39;s more, the Australian dollar also reacted to the RBNZ decision and the AUD/USD fell to a ten-year low, as the market speculates that the Australian Central Bank may follow in the footsteps of the RBNZ.</p> <p>It was the first reduction in interest rates in New Zealand since May this year to support employment and inflation prospects while weakening global economic growth and declining activity in international trade. The statement gave details motivating the Wednesday decision: Global economic activity is still decreasing, reducing the demand for goods and services in New Zealand. Increased uncertainty and decreasing international trade have contributed to lower growth in the number of trading partners. Central banks ease their monetary policy to support their economies. Global long-term interest rates have fallen to historically low levels, in line with low expected inflation and future growth rates.</p> <p>Adrian Orr, Governor of the RBNZ, added in his statement that there is no point in refraining from rate cuts when global outlook deteriorates. Orr also added that the central bank is very advanced in work on unconventional policy and is ready for further easing of monetary policy. Thus, the RBNZ left the door open for further cuts, and the market is pricing in another interest rate cut of 25 basis points by February, which may put pressure on NZD.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 07 Aug 2019 10:25:00 +0200On Wednesday night, the New Zealand dollar fell in relation to the US dollar over 2 percent. The NZD/USD exchange rate fell to its lowest level since January 2016 after a surprising cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/gold-benefits-from-a-fall-in-stock-market-indiceshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/gold-benefits-from-a-fall-in-stock-market-indicesMetals, such as gold and silver, arouse much greater interest of investors at a time when panic appears on the stock market. Panic and fear undoubtedly appeared on Monday, which helped in the continuation of gold price rises towards a round level of USD 1,500 per ounce.<p>Gold has already gained over 15 percent since the beginning of the year, and most of the growth seems to have been due to the trade war between the United States and China. The dispute between the two superpowers intensified, which greatly worsened the sentiment in the markets. This was accompanied by risk aversion and a sharp fall in stock prices - the largest in one day this year.</p> <p>It was once again fuel for gold price advantage, which again began to act as a safe haven in response to the pressure of stock market. Previously, both gold and stocks were more correlated because both asset classes seemed to gain in value amid Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.</p> <p>The demand for gold is visible in most currencies, and its price increases not only in the US dollar. Besides, the USD has been the strongest in the last two years, which did not prevent the price of gold to persist on many years&#39; highs. This means that investors may diversify their foreign exchange reserves and exchange them for gold. Just as central banks did last year.</p> <p>Thus, many points to the fact that the price of gold, which has risen to the highest level for more than six years (in the US dollar), seems to be supported by investors from around the world, which may indicate a possible strong trend.</p> <p><img alt="Gold weekly chart" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/gold-weekly-chart.png" /></p> <p><small>Gold, weekly chart. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>At the chart, the price of gold has broken from the upper limit in the short-term triangle pattern. Currently, another resistance may be the upper limit in the main, wide channel, which is set over the level of USD 1,500.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comTue, 06 Aug 2019 15:18:00 +0200Metals, such as gold and silver, arouse much greater interest of investors at a time when panic appears on the stock market. Panic and fear undoubtedly appeared on Monday, which helped in the continuation of gold price rises towards a round level of USD...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/it-was-the-worst-day-for-the-stock-market-this-yearhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/it-was-the-worst-day-for-the-stock-market-this-yearAlready yesterday in the morning we saw a greater volatility of many asset classes, which at the end of the day turned into a panicky sale in the global stock market. However, as always, The Wall Street and a powerful risk aversion caught the most attention.<p>The Dow Jones index fell by 767 points, or 2.9 percent. The S&amp;P 500 fell by 87 points, or 3.0 percent. Nasdaq fell by 278 points or 3.5 percent. This was the worst stock market session this year. Mostly, technological companies were falling, as well as companies with the exposure to the Asian market. The drop in share prices could have accelerated after the President of the United States accused China of currency manipulation, which could exacerbate the conflict. This happened after the Chinese yuan weakened to the level of 7.00 in relation to USD, which was the highest value for almost a decade. In this way, China can increase the attractiveness of its exports, which Donald Trump does not like.</p> <p>In reaction to the Governor of the People&#39;s Bank of China, Yi Gang said China would not use foreign exchange rates as a tool in a trade war. Nevertheless, Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin will work with the International Monetary Fund to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage resulting from China&#39;s recent actions, the statement said. An accusation of currency manipulation may have serious consequences for business, as it may mean imposing penalties on Beijing or breaking important contracts between the US and China.</p> <p>One can conclude from all this that the most important is currently the yuan exchange rate and its behavior at a politically significant level of 7.00. A further weakening of the Chinese currency could exacerbate the conflict. In turn, strengthening of the yuan can mitigate conflict. With the latter case, we were dealing today at night, when the Chinese currency strengthened in relation to the US Dollar.</p> <p>This may have resulted in a very quick reversal in futures contracts on stock indices in Asia, Europe and the United States. The S&amp;P 500 index was in a very interesting place, because both the last sell-off has the same point value as the previous, which appeared in the spring. In addition, the index reached the 200-session average, which is a trend indicator for many investors.</p> <p><img alt="Daily chart of the S&amp;P 500" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/daily-chart-of-the-SP-500.png" /></p> <p><small>Daily chart of the S&amp;P 500. Conotoxia trading platform</small></p> <p>From the point of view of technical analysis, the market tries to defend significant support and only its defeat could change the trend.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comTue, 06 Aug 2019 11:13:00 +0200Already yesterday in the morning we saw a greater volatility of many asset classes, which at the end of the day turned into a panicky sale in the global stock market. However, as always, The Wall Street and a powerful risk aversion caught the most atten...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-end-of-the-appreciation-of-the-american-currency-is-closehttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/the-end-of-the-appreciation-of-the-american-currency-is-closeThere is no more evidence of the strengthening of the US currency caused by the "hawkish cut" in interest rates ny the Fed last week. The decision of the American president to introduce new tariffs on Chinese products could lead to a dollar reversal, which seems to increase the chances for the Fed to cut interest rates already in September.<p>Donald Trump has complained about the strong dollar and the central bank for months. On the one hand, he said that other countries are weakening their currencies to make their exports more competitive. He meant China and the euro zone. Trump even suggested currency manipulation. On the other hand, the president of the United States did not like the Fed&#39;s policy. In his opinion, interest rates were raised too fast and too high. It seems that now Trump&#39;s criticism will come into force and he will be able to deal with the dollar and with monetary policy easing - all thanks to the escalation of the trade war.</p> <p>The US currency has been losing strongly in the last three days. The major EUR/USD pair, has risen to the level from before the Fed&#39;s decision and is at the highest level from 25 July. This move may take place due to the significant increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed already in September. If the Fed knew what would happen 24 hours after the last week&#39;s decision, perhaps the statement would also be in a different tone. Now the currency market is adapting to the possible more easing of monetary policy in the US.</p> <p>What&#39;s more, the contract for the US dollar index, which has recently reached the highest level in two years, in three days lost as much as previously gained in six. This only indicates the dynamics of movement. In addition, from the beginning of July, leveraged funds reduce their exposure to an increase in USD. It seems that there is a significant divergence when there is less and less willing to invest in the dollar along with its rising price. In other words, it seems that at these levels the dollar may no longer be an attractive investment.</p> <p><img alt="US Dollar Index and leverage money net long positions" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/net-positions.jpg" /></p> <p><small>US Dollar Index and leverage money net long positions. Source: tradingster.com</small></p> <p>To all this comes the thread of a possible currency war that the US can start with China. If there was a new chapter in the conflict, its aim would be to weaken the USD, but probably not only to the Chinese yuan, but also to other currencies.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 05 Aug 2019 15:07:00 +0200There is no more evidence of the strengthening of the US currency caused by the "hawkish cut" in interest rates ny the Fed last week. The decision of the American president to introduce new tariffs on Chinese products could lead to a dollar reversal, wh...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/full-blown-currency-war-ahead-of-ushttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/full-blown-currency-war-ahead-of-usMonday and the first full week of August start spectacularly. Price changes in many asset classes after several hours of trading are significant - from the bond and equity market to the currency market. The last one allows us to ask again whether we will see a currency war? <p>The Chinese yuan weakened above the level of 7.00 per dollar for the first time since 2010, fueling speculation that China will expand the US trade conflict over the currency war. With the escalation of the trade war, it seems possible that China may increasingly devalue the yuan. There was also information that the Chinese government had asked state-owned enterprises to suspend imports of US agricultural products.</p> <p>Japanese yen and Swiss franc are definitely strengthening in relation to other currencies after last week Donald Trump announced that from September 1 will impose another 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods worth USD 300 billion. In just three days, USD/JPY fell by more than 350 pips, which is a significant move. Yen and franc gain as a so-called safe haven to which capital returns with increasing risk in the markets.</p> <p>It is worth noting that the investors also returned to the gold market. The price of this metal has increased to the highest level since May 2013. Thus, the high established in July this year was broken, and an ounce of gold is worth over USD 1,455. We should also pay attention to what is happening with the prices of US bonds that have skyrocketed again. Investors seem to be buying a safe American debt, at the same time lowering its yields, which may also translate into a weaker dollar.</p> <p>Meanwhile, stock indices and oil prices are falling. The escalation of the conflict raises concerns about slower global economic growth, less demand for oil and, above all, lower profits for companies. Lower profits may mean smaller investments, looking for savings, possible lower wages for employees, etc. In other words, a threat to the entire economy. Therefore, the interest rate market is already pricing-in with an almost 80-percent probability that the Fed may cut the interest rate by 25 basis points already in September.</p> <p>Due to the lack of important US data in the macroeconomic calendar for this week, it seems that investors could pay special attention to the further actions of the US and Chinese presidents.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comMon, 05 Aug 2019 10:39:00 +0200Monday and the first full week of August start spectacularly. Price changes in many asset classes after several hours of trading are significant - from the bond and equity market to the currency market. The last one allows us to ask again whether we wil...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-17https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/key-events-of-the-week-17The coming week may allow the markets to catch a breath after the very exciting first week of August. The combination of the Fed`s decision on interest rates, Donald Trump`s statement on new tariffs and labor market data from the United States led to very large fluctuations in the prices of individual assets. Now it can be a bit calmer.<p>Due to the small number of publications from the United States, investors&#39; attention may be directed to other currencies. It seems that one of the most interesting may be Australian and New Zealand Dollars. On Tuesday, August 6 at 00:45 the data from the New Zealand labor market will be published. In turn, the day later at 04:00 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce decision on interest rates. Market consensus assumes that currently the main interest rate will not change, remaining at 1.5 percent. Nevertheless, the market speculates that in the near future there will be a chance to cut the interest rate, which was reflected in the NZD/USD exchange rate, which in recent days has fallen from 0.6800 to 0.6520.</p> <p>The decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on interest rates will be crucial for Australia&#39;s economy. Publication on Tuesday, August 6 at 6:30. This month the market does not expect the RBA to cut the main interest rate. It is to remain at the level of 1.00 percent. However, the RBA may give guidance on actions in the following months, as the base scenario seems to be a dovish approach to monetary policy, mainly due to the escalation of the US and Chinese trade wars. The behavior of the AUD rate in recent days indicates investors&#39; very high hopes of easing monetary policy in Australia.</p> <p>Here, in principle, the most interesting publications, which can have a significant impact on the market, seem to end, but we still need to remember about the British pound. In addition to the continuation of political events, preliminary GDP for the second quarter will be published. Reading on Friday, August 9 at 10:30.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 02 Aug 2019 14:56:00 +0200The coming week (August 5-11) may allow the markets to catch a breath after the very exciting first week of August. The combination of the Fed`s decision on interest rates, Donald Trump`s statement on new tariffs and labor market data from the United St...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/tariffs-trump-s-tool-to-influence-fed-policyhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/tariffs-trump-s-tool-to-influence-fed-policyYesterday, President of the United States Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs on Chinese products. The announcement shook the financial markets. On Wall Street, we have seen the collapse of indices, the price of oil has fallen the most for over four years, and the currency market has been witnessing a sharp strengthening of the yen and the Swiss franc. <p>Donald Trump announced that from September 1, 10 percent tariffs will be imposed for Chinese goods worth 300 billion dollars. This is an additional group of products that does not include goods worth $ 250 billion, for which a 25 percent tariffs already applies. Thus, the trade war has escalated, and this has had to affect the financial markets.</p> <p>The yen strengthened in relation to the US dollar to the levels we last observed five weeks ago. This was due to the return of capital to safe havens. The Swiss franc has definitely strengthened as well and the CHF/PLN exchange rate has risen. The zloty in relation to the franc is the weakest since April 2017. The CHF/PLN exchange rate approaches PLN 3.94. The US dollar, of course, also reacted to Trump&#39;s announcement. Investors began selling American currency. The EUR/USD exchange rate increased from 1.1026 to 1.1090. On the commodity market, crude oil fell yesterday by over 7 percent, and gold went up at a rapid pace from 1,400 to almost USD 1,450 per ounce.</p> <p>New duties on consumer goods may affect household spending, consumer confidence and the labor market. This, in turn, may prompt the Fed to introduce significant changes in the assessment of monetary policy prospects. Therefore, investors are almost sure that interest rates might be cut at the Fed&#39;s September meeting. It seems that the customs policy has become Trump&#39;s tool to influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve. President Trump issued a statement on new duties a day after the Fed&#39;s unsatisfactory decision.</p> <p>Today&#39;s data from the US labor market can further warm up the markets. The publication on employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings will be presented at 14:30.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comFri, 02 Aug 2019 10:08:00 +0200Yesterday, President of the United States Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs on Chinese products. The announcement shook the financial markets. On Wall Street, we have seen the collapse of indices, the price of oil has fallen the most for ove...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/pound-falls-even-after-boe-s-pledge-to-raise-rateshttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/pound-falls-even-after-boe-s-pledge-to-raise-ratesThe British currency in relation to the US dollar today was at some time the cheapest since January 2017. The GBP/USD fell temporarily below 1.2100, then turn back while awaiting the decision of the Bank of England, which was published at 13:00. Then the GBP decline deepened.<p>In line with market expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has not changed interest rates. It was a unanimous decision. The main interest rate in the United Kingdom remained at 0.75 percent, but the statement indicated that assuming calm brexit and some improvement in the global economy, the Bank of England may gradually increase interest rates. Nevertheless, the central bank decided to lower its forecasts for 2019 and 2020 due to slower export growth and weak corporate investments. BoE&#39;s forecasts assume that the United Kingdom will avoid the brexit-related shock, but still expect an increase of 1.3 percent in 2019 and 2020. Previously it was 1.5 and 1.6 percent.</p> <p>Mark Carney, who is the Governor of the Bank of England, added that the impact of tensions in global trade is greater than previously thought. Meanwhile, BoE&#39;s answer to brexit may be in both directions, but it can not say whether the central bank will increase the stimulus program for the economy if it comes to hard brexit. The monetary policy response to brexit will not be automatic. The Committee&#39;s response will be adequate to achieve the inflation target of 2 percent all the time. &ndash; the Governor of BoE added.</p> <p>However, the market does not believe in the current main scenario of the Bank of England, as investors give as much as 60 percent odds that interest rate in the United Kingdom may be reduced in five months. This results in a large divergence between the BoE statement and the interest rate market. If brexit would end successfully for the Britain, then the pound would have some room to strengthen, and the chances for a rate cut could significantly decrease.</p> <p><img alt="GBP/USD" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/kurs-GBP-USD.png" /></p> <p>GBP/USD, W1. Source: Conotoxia trading platform.</p> <p>Looking at the chart, the GBP/USD rate is approaching key support, which was set at a round level of 1.2000. This area was defended in October 2016 and January 2017 and the market turned there twice. It is worth to observe this level.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 01 Aug 2019 14:47:00 +0200The British currency in relation to the US dollar today was at some time the cheapest since January 2017. The GBP/USD fell temporarily below 1.2100, then turn back while awaiting the decision of the Bank of England, which was published at 13:00. Then th...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/us-dollar-rises-to-new-2-year-highhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/us-dollar-rises-to-new-2-year-highThe US dollar has definitely strengthened in the last 24 hours. All because of the decision of the US Federal Reserve and the press conference of Fed chairman Jerome Powell, which cooled the high expectations of the market, thus leading to dollar strength and sell-off on Wall Street.<p>Expectations before yesterday&#39;s decision of the Federal Open Market Committee were very large. Investors hoped for a medium-term and long-term Fed&#39;s dovishness. After all, the interest rate market assumed that by the end of 2020, we may see four cuts of 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the Fed, as expected by the market, lowered yesterday&#39;s range for the federal funds rate from 2.25-2.50 to 2.00-2.25 percent. It was the first cut in more than a decade when the Fed cut interest rates during the financial crisis.</p> <p>The statement made it clear that the Fed currently has no grounds to significantly cut interest rates. The situation on the labor market is very good, economic growth also. Only inflation remains subdued, and the main reason for cutting is the risks associated with the trade war. It is not known today how long it will last and how it will be settled. Therefore, according to Powell, the Federal Reserve has no grounds to consider, after the lowering of interest rates on Wednesday, that this move as the beginning of a new easing cycle.</p> <p>Such a statement shook the American stock market. Investors on Wall Street started selling shares quickly, and the main indexes dived. Less dovish Fed&#39;s bias than expected also translated into a significant strengthening of the US currency. The EUR/USD pair dropped below 1.1050, which was the lowest since May 2017. It also skyrocketed the USD/PLN rate. For one dollar, you currently pay 3.88 zlotys, which is the highest price since spring 2017.</p> <p>Disappointment with the decision of the Fed expressed the president of the United States. Donald Trump said that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell &quot;let us down&quot; by offering a rate cut that is not aggressive enough to wage trade and currency wars by his administration.</p> <p>Today, another decision of an important central bank awaits us - the Bank of England. The Fed must assume in its decisions the unpredictability of the further process of a trade war. In turn, the Bank of England has to take into account different brexit scenarios, which is very difficult and complicated. Today the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, will face the new realities of brexit and the growing likelihood of leaving the Union without agreement during the publication of the decision on interest rates. At 13:30, a press conference will be held by the head of the Bank of England.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comThu, 01 Aug 2019 12:51:00 +0200The US dollar has definitely strengthened in the last 24 hours. All because of the decision of the US Federal Reserve and the press conference of Fed chairman Jerome Powell, which cooled the high expectations of the market, thus leading to dollar streng...https://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/investors-wait-for-the-fed-s-decisionhttps://invest.ckpl.us/investment-research/comments/investors-wait-for-the-fed-s-decisionLooking at the expectations of the Fed`s decision, it`s hard not to resist the impression that the market is very demanding, just like Donald Trump. Whenever the opportunity arises, the US president criticizes the Fed for too fast rate increases. Now it might be possible to change it.<p>Investors from the interest rate market assume that the US central bank will cut interest rates by four times by the end of 2020. This would reduce the cost of money by a whole one percentage point. Therefore, investors&#39; expectations are quite large and unambiguous. This may also be indicated by the inversion of the American yield curve for a long time, especially at its short end.</p> <p>The probability of recession in the United States in 2020 calculated by the Fed branch from Cleveland has risen to 40 percent.</p> <p><img alt="The inversion of the American yield curve for a long time" class="img-fluid w-100" src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/2019-07-30_12h30_37.png" /></p> <p><small>Source: clevelandfed.org</small></p> <p>In the past, such a level has inevitably led to an economic slowdown and recession. There are many indications that the Fed may want to make cuts not on the basis of current data, but for fear of deterioration in the future.</p> <p>Markets and investors have become so accustomed to cheap money over the past decade, and governments have been used to cheap financing thanks to low yields, and it is difficult to normalize monetary policy. In turn, any fear of any slowdown in the economy causes an immediate reaction, so that the crisis does not repeat itself.</p> <p>Financial markets seem to be approaching today&#39;s decision with greater distance, and there is no significant increase in expected volatility on the FX options market. It is elevated, as is usually the case with the decisions of central banks, but there are no signs of waiting for something extraordinary. It may be different on the stock market. Wall Street seems to be counting on the Federal Reserve&#39;s dovish statement very much, and the emotions on the US stock market may be greater this evening.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.</strong></p> <p>Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.</p> <p>69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.</p> forex conotoxia.comWed, 31 Jul 2019 16:14:00 +0200Looking at the expectations of the Fed`s decision, it`s hard not to resist the impression that the market is very demanding, just like Donald Trump. Whenever the opportunity arises, the US president criticizes the Fed for too fast rate increases. Now it...